Дуже грунтовно та зрозуміло про те, чому Третя Світова насправді вже зовсім близько:
A lavish extravaganza is about to be held in Beijing to celebrate the tenth anniversary of the BRI, the sprawling global brainchild of the Chinese despot (Global Times, August 31; Hindustan Times, August 31). Few heads of state from wealthy Western countries are expected to attend the BRI bash. And while Xi may see much to celebrate, the initiative is now facing competition from the Indo-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC), established at the recent G20 summit (The Diplomat, September 21; The Indian Express, September 10). Many leaders, particular in developed nations, have criticized Beijing of resorting to “debt trap” diplomacy—as well as bribery of local officials—to push grandiose BRI-related schemes. While there is debate about the validity of the “debt-trap” label, it is undoubtedly the case that some BRI projects have become white elephants (those whose ballooning costs far outweigh their utility)), and that several developing countries are now heavily indebted to the PRC.
Uncertainty about what lies ahead could push Xi to launch an invasion for two reasons: first, he could be compelled by a sense that his window of opportunity will not be open for much longer; and second, uncertainty from the rest of the world is something that Xi might attempt to take advantage of. However, it is the uncertainty at the top of the PLA Rocket Force and the Equipment Development Department which are currently most determinative, suggesting that such an event is at least not an imminent possibility. Should Xi eventually feel emboldened to take such a drastic step, even if the PLA’s missiles were able to prove their worth in a relatively swift conquest of Taiwan, it could take several decades before Taiwanese will cower before the harsh dictatorship of the CCP regime. Without a victory over Taiwan, Xi’s status as the “Mao Zedong of the 21st Century” in the CCP pantheon could be threatened. The likelihood would then increase that the Party core responsible for country’s failure to improve the economy, expand its global clout, and upgrade its military prowess could be driven from power some time in the coming decade, though how that might unfold cannot be predicted at present. Much therefore hinges on Xi’s choices, and his ability to execute them, in the next few years.
https://jamestown.org/program/xis-dilemma-the-risk-of-waging-war-against-taiwan/
(Хто хоче перекладу - штовхайте Мортіса)
