🌎 Humanity Will Survive an Asteroid Collision
In 2182, the asteroid Bennu might collide with Earth. The European Space Agency estimates the catastrophe probability at 0.037%, comparable to the chance of flipping a coin 11 times in a row with the same outcome. Yet the asteroid 2024YR4, which has received significant media attention in recent days and currently holds the highest threat rating, has a slightly over 2% chance of impacting Earth in 2032.
In this case, the asteroid Bennu's diameter is 484 meters (5-10 times larger than 2024YR4), which makes it the fifth largest of the known space threats today. Using the supercomputer Aleph, the South Korean scientists have simulated the asteroid collision effects on Earth's climate and ecosystems.
A Bennu-type asteroid's impact with Earth would inject up to 400,000 tons of dust into the upper atmosphere. This would lead to dramatic climate change, up to a 4℃ drop in the Earth's surface temperature, a 15% reduction of global mean rainfall, and the depletion of one-third of the ozone layer. Dust will make it difficult for sunlight to penetrate the Earth's surface, which would tragically affect photosynthesis and might lead to a global food crisis. The "impact winter" will last at least four years.
At the same time, marine ecosystems will recover faster after the impact than terrestrial ecosystems. Iron-rich asteroid dust will serve as fertilizer for algae, especially where there is a lack of the mineral: in the Southern Ocean and part of the Pacific Ocean. Their growth will attract microorganisms, which might eventually help alleviate food shortages, notes the study co-author, Dr. Lan Dai.
Humanity will likely survive, adds her colleague, professor Axel Timmermann. On average, medium-sized asteroids collide with Earth about every 100,000 to 200,000 years, he says. "This means that our early human ancestors may have experienced some of these planet-shifting events before with potential impacts on human evolution and even our own genetic makeup," Timmermann explains.
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