Виступ на семінарі про наслідки відсторонення boeing 737 max від експлуатації

продовження

Academic Seminar “Operational and Competitive Effects of a Major External Supply-Side Shock: Case of Boeing 737 MAX Grounding" by Volodymyr Bilotkach

Abstract. Grounding of the entire Boeing 737 MAX fleet on March 13, 2019 represents a case of an unanticipated supply-side disruption. Interestingly, different airlines were affected by this event to a different degree. On the US market, in particular, some airlines did not have any aircraft of this type in their fleet, while for instance for Southwest Airlines 737 MAX constituted five percent of their fleet at the time. We study the effects of this disruption using schedule data on the US domestic market. From OAG data, we are able to observe changes in the schedules for several months after the grounding. Using the schedules from the time period unaffected by any disruptions, we are able to employ difference-in-differences estimation strategy. Our findings point to the MAX operators adding seat capacity on routes that have been served by MAX aircraft prior to grounding (as compared to the airlines not operating that aircraft type). This result is most likely driven by the carriers replacing the MAX aircraft with larger capacity planes on some routes. Interestingly, even though on an average route MAX operators have operated fewer departures post-grounding; the effect of the grounding on the routes where MAX was present is the opposite – the grounding has led to increased flight frequency on those routes. One interpretation of this finding is that MAX operators, anticipating competitors’ response to potential flight cancellations, have acted to protect their position on markets where they operated MAX aircraft. Preliminary data analysis also suggests that schedule adjustment was rather prompt.