🎱 Can AI Predict the Future?
The new benchmark Prophet Arena measures AI "predictive intelligence." Models read the news flow and make forecasts about world events.
The authors claim their benchmark is unique. It tests genuine forecasting skill (not rote recall), uses ever-fresh data with real-time scoring, and measures how well models turn probabilities into sound betting decisions.
GPT-5, o3, and Gemini 2.5 Pro are the most accurate forecasters, but o3-mini delivers the best average betting return—it just reads the market better.
What Is AI Predicting?
🔜 o3-mini gives a 14% chance that Trump will release the Epstein files before the end of the year. The o3 says 70%.
🔜 Likely Oscar nominees for Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Jeremy Allen White.
🔜 Gemini 2.5 Pro is 95% sure the U.S. will regulate AI at the federal level before 2026.
🔜 The WTI oil-price consensus for year-end is $75–80 per barrel.
Do you trust AI predictions?
❤️ — Yes, of course
🤣 — No, that's nonsense!
